A Year of Transformation: Looking Back and Moving Forward

“In the end, it's not the daily fluctuations that matter, but the compounded growth over decades. " — Warren Buffett

​​The Portfolio Performance

The portfolio is UP +26.55% YTD

The S&P 500 is UP +16.20% YTD

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A Year of Transformation: Looking Back and Moving Forward

It's been a year since my last post in December 2024, and what a year 2025 has been. I owe you all an update, and I'm excited to share what's been happening behind the scenes.

A New Chapter

The biggest news is that I've retired from my position as General Partner and Portfolio Manager at Crystal Waters Capital. This marks the end of an important chapter in my career, but it opens the door to something I've been looking forward to: the freedom to write more openly about markets, investing opportunities, and topics where I previously had conflicts of interest. No more holding back.

While I made several buys and sells throughout 2024, I wasn't able to write about them at the time due to my responsibilities at the fund. That changes now.

Committing to Regular Content

Looking ahead to the new year, I plan to write and analyze investments for you on a regular schedule. I know I've been inconsistent in the past, but I'm committed to changing that. Please hold me to it. Your feedback and accountability matter.

Major Website Upgrades

I've spent considerable time this year coding new website features. Here's what's new:

The Bloomberg-Style Portfolio Page

The old Google spreadsheet is officially retired. The new portfolio page features a sleek, Bloomberg Terminal-inspired design that makes everything clearer and more professional-looking.

What's improved? Performance metrics are now front and center. Sector allocations are easier to read and understand. But the biggest upgrade is the new LOTS feature. Previously, you only learned about my buys and sells when I wrote about them in blog posts. Now, every transaction is logged in real time. Simply click the number in the LOTS column to see the complete history of purchases and sales for any position, including dividend payments. (https://www.claybaker.com/portfolio)

Speaking of dividends: I'll now reinvest them as they occur, which should improve overall performance. To explore all the features of the new portfolio page, click the TOUR button at the top.

S&P 500 Prediction Tool

In my ongoing mission to mock Wall Street's pretensions, I've built out the prediction model I created into a fully functional tool. You'll find it under the Resources menu.

The model runs 10,000 simulations using historical data and applies straightforward statistics to derive a base-case value for the S&P 500. The amusing part? My simple approach generates predictions that align remarkably well with those from major Wall Street firms. Click the TOUR button to learn about all its features. (https://www.claybaker.com/sp500prediction)

Social Security Investment Calculator

This tool grew out of a question I kept asking myself: would I be better off taking Social Security earlier and investing those payments in an index fund rather than waiting until full retirement age at 67 or even 70? The calculator simulates various investment scenarios to help answer that question. Find it in the Resources menu and click TOUR to see how it works. (https://www.claybaker.com/investmentcomparison)

Year-End Archive Reports

Traditionally, I would lock down the portfolio spreadsheet and file it in the "Old Portfolios" menu at the end of each year. With the new portfolio, I've added an "Archive Report" that provides a clearer, more accurate picture of each year's investments and performance. These reports will be generated on December 31st each year and stored in what will now be called the "Archives."

If there are other tools or features you'd like to see, please let me know. I'm always looking for ways to make this resource more valuable to you.

Introducing the Pure Alpha Portfolio

You'll notice there's now a second portfolio available on the main portfolio tab, which I'm calling "Pure Alpha." This portfolio is dedicated to an investment group I've recently joined and reflects the group's specific investment approach.

The Stay Invested portfolio will continue its mission: pursuing growth while minimizing volatility. The Pure Alpha portfolio will take a different approach, and I'll write about both as we move forward.

Introducing the New Book Review Section

A new Books menu appears on the main menu. I’ll be adding books I’ve read or am reading as time permits. Each entry includes a brief review, and you can order any of these books from Amazon by clicking the BUY button, which will help support the Stay Invested blog. (https://www.claybaker.com/books)

Work Ahead for Stay Invested

The Stay Invested portfolio needs attention. The sector allocations have drifted. Some sectors are underweight, others are overweight, and rebalancing is overdue. I need to review the specific changes required and, more importantly, discuss them with all of you before taking action.

Looking Forward

I'm genuinely excited about 2026. The freedom to write openly, the new tools at our disposal, and the opportunity to engage with you more regularly all point to what I hope will be a productive and transparent year ahead.

The Stay Invested Portfolio is again outperforming the S&P 500 by a wide margin, and I suspect it will hold up through year-end. 

Thank you for your patience during my silence and for sticking around.

Stay Invested,

Clay Baker

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Clay's Rules

Rule #1: Don't lose money

Rule #2: See Rule #1

Rule #3: Portfolios go to zero, markets don't; Stay Invested

Rule #4: When good stocks you own drop 10% below your cost basis, add shares

Rule #5: Bull markets aren't sustained without the Transports

Rule #6: When Forward P/E is lower than TTM P/E, expect earnings to increase

Rule #7: When an investment bank sells below book value, buy it

Rule #8: Tips are for waiters. Do your own homework.

Rule #9: Don't sell a stock because you're bored with it. Do your homework.

RULE #10: Don't expect a company's stock to perform according to your timeline; be patient.

Rule #11: Investing is easy. Waiting is hard; waiting is the hardest part.

Rule #12: It's hard to be incredibly intelligent. Not being stupid is pretty easy.

Rule #13: Good allocation is more important than good or bad stock picking.

Disclosure: I am personally invested long in some or all of these stocks or funds that appear in the Stay Invested portfolio and may purchase or sell shares within the next 72 hours. I am also invested in other stocks and funds that do not appear in the Stay Invested portfolio but may be mentioned or related to this article. It is not my intention to advise or encourage the purchase or sale of any security.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. This article is not intended to offer investing advice, guarantee 100% accurate predictions, or be interpreted as providing a personal recommendation. This and all articles on this website are provided for entertainment and educational purposes only. Investing involves risk and the risk of loss of part or all of your capital. Invest wisely, make your own decisions, and seek advice from multiple sources.