Nvidia
“This market is turning the corner ahead of the Fed. Are you waiting for the next bus?"
- Clay Baker
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Nvidia Reports Tomorrow
This is the most important earnings call of the season, I'll be listening to the call. Nividia is leading in the race to build AI models due to the ecosystem of chips, hardware, and software they offer developers and data centers. The Stay Invested portfolio's position in Nvidia is up over 462% with a consensus of all analysts showing 30% upside. I plan to contnue holding the stock long-term.
Analysts have high expectations for a company that has already delivered 245% return YTD, outpacing every other S&P 500 stock. The question to ask is have we already priced everything into Nvidia stock? Analysts are expecting 170% revenue growth and forecasts for the fourth quarter are 200%. Bank of America analysts stated that they expect, "A beat and raise".
For comparison, AMD CEO Lisa Su said last month that AMD expects GPU revenue of about $400 million during Q4, and more than $2 billion in 2024. Almost everyone has heard that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and his co-founder have abruptly exited OpenAI.com. As of today, Sam landed at Microsoft to lead their AI teams. Hundred of OpenAI employees have called for the board to resign or they will walk. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff has extended an offer to all OpenAI employees to join Salesforce. I would expect movement in the AI space as companies move quickly to take and hold the lead in product development and commercialization.
Since data center is where a big chunk of Nvidia's revenue is generated we have to look at the H100 chip and focus on this segment in tomorrows earnings call. Nvidia's H100 chips are part of their data center products. In Q2 revenue from the H100 surged over 170% to $10.32 billion, or about 75% of Nvidia’s total revenue. For Q3, analysts expect Nvidia's data center business to roughly quadruple to over $13 billion from $3.83 billion in the previous year.
Action
None
"Markets don't go to zero, Portfolio's do.
Buy quality, be patient...and look twice for motorcycles."
- Clay Baker
Stay Invested,
Clay Baker
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Clay's Rules
Rule #1: Don't lose money
Rule #3: Portfolios go to zero, markets don't, Stay Invested
Rule #4: When good stocks you own drop 10% below your cost basis, add shares
Rule #5: Bull markets aren't sustained without the Transports
Rule #6: When Forward P/E is lower than TTM P/E, expect earnings to increase
Rule #7: When an investment bank sells below book value, buy it
Rule #8: Tips are for waiters. Do your own homework.
Rule #9: Don't sell a stock because you're bored with it. Do your own homework.
RULE #10: Being early and being late is the same as being wrong...move on.
Rule #11: Investing is easy. Waiting is hard; waiting is the hardest part.
Disclosure: I am personally invested long in some or all of these stocks or funds that appear in the Stay Invested portfolio and may purchase or sell shares within the next 72 hours. I am also invested in other stocks and funds that do not appear in the Stay Invested portfolio but may be mentioned or related to this article. It is not my intention to advise or encourage the purchase or sale of any security. I am invested long in these securities mentioned in this post:
AMD, AMZN, AAPL, ARKK, ARKG, CNRG, ENPH, FB, GNRC, GBTC, GLD, HRTX, HD, MSFT, NVDA
I am invested short in these securities mentioned in this post:
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. This article is not intended to offer investing advice, guarantee 100% accurate predictions, or to be interpreted as providing a personal recommendation.
