7 more minutes
“Don't bet on the end of the world, it only happens once and the odds are against you"
-Art Cashin (Director of Floor Operations, UBS Financial Services)
The Portfolio Performance
The portfolio is down -26% YTD
The S&P 500 is down -16% YTD
At 2:30 pm EST Jerome Powell will speak and tell us what the Fed plans to do with interest rates. Amidst the most important earnings season in my memory, I'm not looking to make any big moves until I hear, in detail, what Powell says.
Earnings so far can be characterized as "Better than expected" or "Not as bad as feared". Given the extreme challenges businesses have faced, I'm impressed. American Express and Chipotle in particular delivered stunning quarters, while Walmart stunned with an unforgivably terrible quarter. For a company that prides itself on its AI and supply chain perfection, the last quarter was yet another repeat that says maybe their expertise is waning and they need to take a hard look internally.
I have updated my 12-month price targets to reflect higher rates and forward guidance. A few companies have received modest upgrades while several are lower and have the portfolio underwater on some positions. Ackerman announced recently that he will be closing the Pershing Square Tontine SPAC because he couldn't find a deal that he likes, and he will be returning capital to investors. The best number I have is that he will return $20.05/share. Since the stock is a tad above that level I've decided to sell the position and put the cash to work elsewhere.
SELL PSTH 1,549 shares @ $20.14 ($30,794.06)
Keep Me Honest 2022
Russia will conquer Ukraine and integrate it into Russia by mid-year 2022.
"Markets don't go to zero, Portfolio's do.
Buy quality, be patient...and look twice for motorcycles."
- Clay Baker
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Keep Me Honest 2022
Volatility will be greater (measured here by the VIX: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/vix/charts?mod=mw_quote_tab)
Rule #1: Don't lose money
Rule #3: Portfolios go to zero, markets don't, Stay Invested
Rule #4: When good stocks you own drop 10% below your cost basis, add shares
Rule #5: Bull markets aren't sustained without the Transports
Rule #6: When Forward P/E is lower than TTM P/E, expect earnings to increase
Rule #7: When an investment bank sells below book value, buy it
Rule #8: Tips are for waiters. Do your own homework.
Rule #9: Don't sell a stock because you're bored with it. Do your own homework.
RULE #10: Being early and being late is the same as being wrong...move on.
Rule #11: Investing is easy. Waiting is hard, waiting is the hardest part.
Disclosure: I am personally invested long in some or all of these stocks or funds that appear in the Stay Invested portfolio and may purchase or sell shares within the next 72 hours. I am also invested in other stocks and funds that do not appear in the Stay Invested portfolio but may be mentioned or related to this article. It is not my intention to advise or encourage the purchase or sale of any security. I am invested long in these securities mentioned in this post:
AMD, AMRN, AMZN, AAPL, ARKK, ARKG, CNRG, ENPH, FB, GNRC, GBTC, GLD, HRTX, HD, IPOD, MSFT, NVDA, PSTH, TWLO, VBIV
I am invested short in these securities mentioned in this post:
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. This article is not intended to offer investing advice, guarantee 100% accurate predictions, or to be interpreted as providing a personal recommendation.