I'm Bullish in 2019
The Stay Invested portfolio was UP today: $58.94 (+0.06%)
Overall GAIN/LOSS YTD: +$1,998.46 (+1.95%)
Our benchmark index, the S&P 500 is UP Year-To-Date +3.57%
"One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys,
another sells, and both think they are astute."
― William Feather
Today just before the close I took a nibble on Independent Bank Corp (INDB) and First Community Corp (FCCO). These are a couple of regional banks that show a lot of promise for 2019. Both look to have roughly 30% upside in 2019. Portfolio has a 1.95% gain so far, slowly closing in on the S&P 500 our benchmark index.
That was interesting, let's just say I've had some comments. Notice I didn't write about Trump and I tried not to refer to social security as an 'entitlement' program. Social Security is simply an issue that needs a resolution. My primary point was that spending on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid offset capital investment dollar-for-dollar. This explains why productivity numbers keep going down.
Everything mentioned in my post is already in place or technology that is already in existence. We already collect those fees at the border, we already use cameras, we already have quick response teams and the policy changes are already happening. We already have electronic transponders that bill our credit cards electronically; ever been through a toll gate with one? As our labor pool gets smaller and wages go up with no real improvement in productivity, we will see significant increases in capital investment by corporations in software and technology that improves productivity. This will likely start in 2019. Our government seems unable to see this need at the borders and instead hires more people at higher wages and builds infrastructure that isn't needed. The border doesn't need more tax dollars, it simply needs to operate more efficiently; and I think it can.
Making a Bullish Call
Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC made a bullish call this morning stating that the S&P 500 Index will rise 13 percent this year to 2,835, driven by a continued profit expansion. Lee's call echo's many on Wall Street who see the S&P 500 rising to a range of 2800-3000 by year end. What makes Lee's call so unique is that he sees this bullish case holding up, even if we don't get a trade deal with China.
While I'm in the 3000 camp, I don't agree with his China perspective. I think sentiment has over powered fundamentals to the point where any negative news on China trade negotiations can throw this market into a tail spin.
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Keep Me Honest
S&P 500 declines to 2,350 or more (1-3-2019)
Healthcare and Biotech sectors outperform (1-3-2019)
S&P reaches 3,000 by year end (1-11-2019)
Disclosure: I am personally invested long in some or all of these stocks or funds that appear in the Stay Invested portfolio and may purchase or sell shares within the next 72 hours. I am also invested in other stocks and funds that do not appear in the Stay Invested portfolio but may be mentioned or related to this article. It is not my intention to advise or encourage the purchase or sale of any security. I am invested long in these securities mentioned in this post:
STZ, AMZN, NVDA, BCRX, GS, BDSI, VEEV, VTI, GLD.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. This article is not intended to offer investing advice, guarantee 100% accurate predictions, or to be interpreted as providing a personal recommendation.