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Quick Update

Mother's Little Helper portfolio was UP today +380.65 (+0.32%)

Overall GAIN/LOSS YTD: +$987.87 (-0.85%)

Our benchmark index, the S&P 500 is UP Year-To-Date (+4.14%)

“If you owe the bank $100, that's your problem,

If you owe the bank $1,000,000 dollars, that's the banks problem.”

– J. Paul Getty

I made my buys for the year on December 28, 2017, see the new portfolio here (Click Here).

The portfolio got a little bounce up today and is finally a tad ahead for the year. The portfolio has a Beta that is half of the average portfolio managers which means that this portfolio experiences about half as much volatility. Lowering volatility (Big swings up and down) is one of the primary goals of our investing at this stage of building a long term portfolio.

By keeping volatility low you are more inclined too 'Stay Invested'. Dividends from this portfolio are on track to deliver about $2,065 by year end, or about 1.78%. What's a dividend? When you buy stock in a company, you're an owner of that company. When the company has earnings they can invest those earning back into the company, buy back their own stock, or pay the earnings back to the shareholders.

If you listen to the financial news, the markets can seem a bit chaotic. Throw in the political news and it feels more like a blender on the high setting. Another way to look at the market is a year at a time. The average return for the DOW is about 9%-10% annually. The DOW rarely hits that number, but over long periods, that's the average. I think the DOW will most likely finish the year with a 9%-10% gain and the S&P 500 will close at about 2900-3000. Those are nice gains that anyone should be happy with, especially if the ride from January to December was 'fairly' smooth.

Trade War

I'm working on an extended 'deep dive' article about the current trade war with China, Canada, Mexico and the EU. This subject effects everyone, investors and non-investors alike so I'll be investing extra time and column inches to try and make sense of the really big picture. If all goes well I hope to have that published this week.


Keep Me Honest

I am attempting to keep track of my calls and predictions by logging them at the bottom of every post.

  1. Bond prices will decline as a result of rising rates and a Dollar Shortage.

  2. Invest in China stocks. NetEase, YY, JD, Baidu, Alibaba, mobile phone services and makers, and China BioTech

  3. Invest in Whirlpool (see Whirlpool caveats above), Kohl’s, Costco Wholesale, Home Depot, Dollar General and Casey’s, Ingersoll-Rand, Illinois Tool works, Paccar, Honeywell, and DowDupont, PayPal, Square, Goldman Sachs, Citibank, Bank of America, JP Morgan, DBC, Apple, Microsoft and Caterpillar.

  4. Goldman Sachs slides to around $210/share

  5. Proctor & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Merck and Pfizer will go lower as rates rise.

  6. The Chinese yuan will replace the dollar in international trade. Not this year, but it will happen in coming years.

  7. The DOW will close the year with 9-10% gain.

  8. The S&P 500 will close the year at 2900-3000.

  9. The portfolio will generate about $2,065 in dividends.

  10. M&A of drug companies will increase over the next 24 months.

Stay Invested,

Clay Baker

Disclosure: I am personally invested long in some or all of these funds that appear in the Mother's Little Helper portfolio or manage these investments for my Mother's portfolio and may purchase or sell shares within the next 72 hours. I am also invested in other stocks and funds that do not appear in the MLH portfolio but may be mentioned or related to this article. It is not my intention to advise or encourage the purchase or sale of any security. Since I may on occasion discuss Bitcoin and other cryto currencies I disclose here that I personally own investments in the cryto-currencies listed here: AMZN, DBC, VTI, VWO, VEA, VIG, XLE, MUB, TBT, GLD, Bitcoin, LiteCoin

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. This article is not intended to offer investing advice, guarantee 100% accurate predictions, or to be interpreted as providing a personal recommendation.

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