Aggressive Buyer Today

“Venture Capitalists are astonishing, you know, if one of them buys a yellow halter top,

all of them have to buy a yellow halter top.”

- Tim Draper

The Portfolio

Our blog portfolio continues to perform well and volatility in the portfolio remains low vs the overall market. Year-To-Date the portfolio is up +17.77%. Our benchmark index, the S&P 500 is up 16.52% YTD.

What I'm Buying Today

The markets opened strong this morning and then a non-voting member, Patrick Harker of the Philadelphia Fed said that he thinks rates should be held where they are because, "we run the risk of creating too much leverage in the economy". Yeah, I think that horse is out of the barn. Markets sold off before I could finish cup number one.

These sell-offs get my attention as a buyer of stocks. As Mr. Draper commented above, following the crowd is rarely a good strategy. Days like these are the mis-pricing I look for in good companies. By the time you read this I will have completed the following transactions. Please visit the portfolio page to see all holdings.

TD Ameritrade (AMTD) Bought 50 shares @ $43.70

Mix Telematics (MIXT) Bought 209 shares @ $14.05

BioSpecific Technology (BSTC) Bought 50 shares @ $57.45

Nabriva (NBRV) Bought 2,000 shares @ $2.02

These purchases were all in stocks where our current holdings are below their cost basis (we're negative, losing money). Adding to these positions at lower prices reduces that negative drag on the portfolio and boosted the overall performance. By lowering our cost basis we are creating a greater margin of safety. While I bought aggressively, this is not risk taking, its risk mitigation. Nothing has changed in my basic thesis for these companies therefore I should like them at lower prices more than I did at higher prices.

If the portfolio didn't already have a position in Goldman Sachs at a lower price I would have bought Goldman as well. I likely would take a full position at the current price of $200-$202. Goldman Sachs has a book value of $221. Anytime an investment bank sells below book value, buy it, only if its below your current cost, or you don't own it.

Men Need Your Help

For three years I've hosted a Distinguished Gentlemen's Ride in support of men's health. On Sunday the 29th of September, for the fourth year, I will don my finest attire with my fellow men and women across the globe to join the fight with The Distinguished Gentleman's Ride to raise awareness for prostate cancer and men's mental health. But before I press my tweed and polish my boots, I need you to donate what you can for this meaningful cause and help me reach my goal.

MY SPONSORSHIP PAGE

For your uncles, your brothers, your fathers and friends.

Donate what you can, for their lives need not end.

This year I'll be traveling to Ukiah, CA to support a new DGR Ride hosted by David and Martha Bookout. The DGR Ride is a program of the Movember Foundation. Movember seeks to make a global contribution to men living happier, healthier, longer lives. It is the driving force behind their campaigns, funding strategy, and vision for the future.

The state of men's health is in a crisis. By 2030 Movember aims to:

  • Reduce the number of men dying prematurely by 25%

  • Reduce the rate of male suicides by 25%

  • Halve the number of deaths from prostate cancer

  • Halve the number of men dying from testicular cancer

  • Halve the number of men experiencing serious mental and physical side effects from treatment for prostate cancer or testicular cancer

You can learn more at Charity Navigator: Movember Foundation

Earnings Season Catch Up

Most of our holdings have reported. To help you skim through the long list I've color coded the REPORTED titles as MISSED, IN-LINE or , BEATMIXED

VEEV 8-27-2019

EXPECTED: Veeva Systems Inc. is going to report earnings on 08/27/2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.49. Earnings range is range is $0.48 to $0.51.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $259.37M, Revenue range is $254.17M - $262.6M.

HEI 8-27-2019

EXPECTED: Heico Corporation is going to report earnings on 08/27/2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.54. Earnings range is range is $0.50 to $0.56.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $510.16M, Revenue range is $503.4M - $521.53M.

"Markets don't go to zero, Portfolio's do.

Buy quality, be patient...and look twice for motorcyclists"

- Clay Baker

Stay Invested,

Clay

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Keep Me Honest

  1. S&P 500 declines to 2,350 or more (1-3-2019)

  2. Healthcare and Biotech sectors outperform (1-3-2019)

  3. S&P reaches 3,000 by year end (1-11-2019)

  4. CSCO reaches $60/share (1-18-2019)

  5. VEEV reaches $145/share (2-14-2019) (achieved $145.23 on 5-10-2019)

  6. CVS reaches $91.50 (2-27-2019)

  7. Bull market takes another leg up (4-7-2019)

  8. The Fed will lower rates 1-2 times (5-13-2019)

Clay's Rules

Rule #1: Don't lose money

Rule #2: See Rule #1

Rule #3: Portfolios go to zero, markets don't, Stay Invested

Rule #4: When a good stock you own drops 10% below your cost basis, add shares

Rule #5: Bull markets aren't sustained without the Transports

Rule #6: When Forward P/E is lower than TTM P/E, expect earnings to increase

Rule #7: When an investment bank sells below book value, buy it

Disclosure: I am personally invested long in some or all of these stocks or funds that appear in the Stay Invested portfolio and may purchase or sell shares within the next 72 hours. I am also invested in other stocks and funds that do not appear in the Stay Invested portfolio but may be mentioned or related to this article. It is not my intention to advise or encourage the purchase or sale of any security. I am invested long in these securities mentioned in this post:

CVS, CSCO, VEEV, STZ, AMZN, NVDA, BCRX, GS, BDSI, VEEV, VTI, GLD, HD, AWR, XLNX, MRVL, NBRV

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. This article is not intended to offer investing advice, guarantee 100% accurate predictions, or to be interpreted as providing a personal recommendation.

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This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice.
This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities.

© 2016 by Clay Baker all rights reserved