Monday is Nabriva Day

“The best way to teach your kids about taxes is by eating 30% of their ice cream.”

― Bill Murray

The Portfolio

Our blog portfolio continues to perform well and volatility in the portfolio remains low vs the overall market. Year-To-Date the portfolio is up +17.50% (markets are still open as I write). While the markets had a sell off this week, the blogs portfolio remained relatively calm. Even with an 800 point drop in the DOW on August 14th, the blog portfolio remained above 15% YTD. Our benchmark index, the S&P 500 is up 15.17% YTD at the moment. The portfolio still has room to grow to the upside so I'm optimistic that we may beat the S&P 500 again this year making this the 4th year in a row we've outperformed.

Vacation Is Over

On July 31st I left on vacation and just returned. I thought I'd get a couple of blog posts out, but ultimately, I was having too good of a time to worry about the daily moves in the market. I hope all my readers do the same, focus on what's important and always take the long term view of the stock market.

Nabriva Therapeutics

One of the biotech's in our portfolio has a significant event on Monday. As our 3rd largest holding, Monday is significant to the overall portfolio. Nabriva is a clinical-stage bio-pharmaceutical company that develops novel anti-infective agents to treat serious infections. Most companies see their stock prices rise as a result of financial performance, a good earnings call and good forward guidance that projects further growth. Biotech investors like to see financial performance too, but often the catalysts that propel these stocks higher are meetings with the FDA and the European Medicines Agency (EMA). On June 24th Nabriva announced that the EMA had approved their drug Lafamulin in both oral and IV forms for the treatment of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). On Monday August 19th, Nabriva has a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) meeting for Lefamulin with the FDA. This new drug application is for the treatment of community-acquired bacterial pneumonia (CABP). Approval will provide a first in class treatment for patients with this serious infection, greatly expand the total market available from the EU to also include the United States. One of the unique risks in this space is that sometimes the stock price of a biotech will run up prior to an announcement and then sell off afterwards, even on good news. This is typically profit taking by traders and algorithmic trading platforms. Sometimes the opposite is true. In either case I typically like to buy and hold a good company for as long as possible and not allow myself to get caught up in the day to day gyrations.

Earnings Season Catch Up

Most of our holdings have reported. To help you skim through the long list I've color coded the REPORTED titles as MISSED, IN-LINE or MIXED, BEAT

MPWR 7-31-2019

EXPECTED:

Monolithic Power Systems is estimated to report earnings on 07/24/2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.92. Earnings range is range is $0.91 to $0.93.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $150.68M, Revenue range is $150.16M - $150.7.

REPORTED:

Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.92 in-line

GAAP EPS of $0.45 misses by $0.11

Revenue of $151.01M (+8.0% Y/Y) beats by $0.45M

RCL 8-1-2019

EXPECTED:

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is estimated to report earnings on 08/01/2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $2.45. Earnings range is range is $2.34 to $2.53.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $2.8B, Revenue range is $2.76B - $2.84B.

REPORTED:

Adjusted earnings of $2.54 per share surpassed the Consensus Estimate of $2.45 and also increased 11.9% year over year, owing to higher revenues.

Total revenues were $2,806.6 million, outpacing the consensus mark of $2,794 million and increased 20.1% from the year-ago quarter number.

XYL 8-1-2019

EXPECTED:

Xylem Inc. is expected* to report earnings on 08/01/2019 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Jun 2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.79. Earnings range is range is $0.76 to $0.80.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $1.35B, Revenue range is $1.32B - $1.40B.

REPORTED:

Quarterly earnings of $0.79 per share, in line with the Consensus Estimate.

Revenues of $1.35 billion for the quarter ended June 2019, surpassing the Consensus Estimate by 0.02%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $1.32 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates two times over the last four quarters.

MIXT 8-1-2019

EXPECTED:

MiX Telematics Limited is estimated to report earnings on 08/01/2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.18. Earnings range is range is $0.18 to $0.18.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $35.46M, Revenue range is $34.36M - $36.25M.

REPORTED:

MiX Telematics reported Q1 EPS of $0.19, $0.01 better than the analyst estimate of $0.18.

Revenue for the quarter came in at $37 million versus the consensus estimate of $35.61 million.

AWR 8-5-2019

EXPECTED:

American States Water Company is estimated to report earnings on 08/05/2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.51. Earnings range is range is $0.50 to $0.53.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $115.2M, Revenue range is $110.5M - $122.31M.

REPORTED:

American States Water reported Q2 EPS of $0.72, $0.16 better than the analyst estimate of $0.56. Revenue for the quarter came in at $124.65 million versus the consensus estimate of $117.41 million.

FOXF 8-7-2019

EXPECTED:

Fox Factory is estimated to report earnings on 08/07/2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.66. Earnings range is range is $0.65 to $0.67.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $187.94M, Revenue range is $185.12M - $190.3M.

REPORTED:

Fox Factory Holding reported Q2 EPS of $0.68, $0.02 better than the analyst estimate of $0.66. Revenue for the quarter came in at $192.1 million versus the consensus estimate of $187.94 million.

GUIDANCE:

Fox Factory sees Q3 2019 EPS of $0.75-$0.80, versus the consensus of $0.78.

Fox Factory sees Q3 2019 revenue of $200-208 million, versus the consensus of $199.6 million.

Fox Factory sees FY2019 EPS of $2.56-$2.64, versus the consensus of $2.60. Fox Factory Holding sees FY2019 revenue of $728-743 million, versus the consensus of $729.86 million.

CCMP 8-7-2019

EXPECTED:

Cabot Microelectronics is expected* to report earnings on 08/07/2019 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Jun 2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1.57. Earnings range is range is $1.50 to $1.65.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $267.13M, Revenue range is $263M - $270M.

REPORTED:

Earnings Per Share of $1.55, $0.17 or 12.3% Higher Than Last Year, but below consensus estimates.

Record Revenue of $265.4 Million, $122.4 Million or 85.6% Higher Than Last Year, but below consensus.

Overall the company has done very well on earnings and revenue. Estimates were possibly too high as the results were within the ranges.

NSP 8-7-2019

EXPECTED:

Insperity, Inc. is estimated to report earnings on 08/07/2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.83. Earnings range is range is $0.83 to $0.84.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $1.04B, Revenue range is $1.02B - $1.05B.

REPORTED:

Insperity (NYSE: NSP) reported Q2 EPS of $0.83, in-line with the analyst estimate of $0.83.

Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.04 billion versus the consensus estimate of $1.04 billion.

GUIDANCE:

Insperity sees Q3 2019 EPS of $1.00-$1.04, versus the consensus of $1.09.

Insperity sees FY2019 EPS of $4.59-$4.74, versus the consensus of $4.69.

CVS 8-7-2019

EXPECTED:

CVS Health Corporation is expected* to report earnings on 08/07/2019 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Jun 2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1.69. Earnings range is range is $1.65 to $1.72.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $62.71B, Revenue range is $61.66B - $63.28B.

REPORTED:

CVS earned $1.89 per share, above the $1.69 per share expected.

Net sales reached $63.43 billion vs. $62.65 billion expected, up 35% from the year ago-quarter's $46.92 billion, largely because of the Aetna health insurance business CVS acquired.

BDSI 8-8-2019

EXPECTED:

BioDelivery Sciences is estimated to report earnings on 08/08/2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $-0.06. Earnings range is range is $-0.25 to $-0.01.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $24.59M, Revenue range is $23.07M - $27.3M.

REPORTED:

BioDelivery Sciences Q2 GAAP EPS of -$0.13 misses by $0.10.

Revenue of $29.7M (+143.4% Y/Y) beats by $4.98M.

NBRV 8-8-2019

EXPECTED:

Nabriva Therapeutics is estimated to report earnings on 08/08/2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $-0.33. Earnings range is range is $-0.34 to $-0.33.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $790K, Revenue range is $500K - $1.25M.

REPORTED:

Nabriva Therapeutics Q2 GAAP EPS of -$0.44.

Revenue of $0.85M (+60.4% Y/Y)

BSTC 8-8-2019

EXPECTED:

BioSpecifics Technologies Corp is estimated to report earnings on 08/08/2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.72. Earnings range is range is $0.72 to $0.72.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $8.98M, Revenue range is $8.98M - $8.98M.

REPORTED:

BioSpecifics Tech Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.87.

Revenue of $8.85M (+12.7% Y/Y) misses by $0.13M.

NVDA 8-15-2019

EXPECTED:

NVIDIA Corporation is estimated to report earnings on 08/15/2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1.14. Earnings range is range is $1.07 to $1.24.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $2.54B, Revenue range is $2.41B - $2.57B.

REPORTED:

Second quarter revenue of $2.58 billion, above consensus estimates of $2.55 billion.

EPS of $1.24, above consensus estimates of $1.15.

VEEV 8-22-2019

EXPECTED: Veeva Systems Inc. is estimated to report earnings on 08/22/2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.49. Earnings range is range is $0.48 to $0.51.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $259.37M, Revenue range is $254.17M - $262.6M.

HEI 8-26-2019

EXPECTED: Heico Corporation is estimated to report earnings on 08/26/2019.

The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.54. Earnings range is range is $0.50 to $0.56.

The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $510.16M, Revenue range is $503.4M - $521.53M.

"Markets don't go to zero, Portfolio's do.

Buy quality, be patient...and look twice for motorcyclists"

- Clay Baker

Stay Invested,

Clay

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Keep Me Honest

  1. S&P 500 declines to 2,350 or more (1-3-2019)

  2. Healthcare and Biotech sectors outperform (1-3-2019)

  3. S&P reaches 3,000 by year end (1-11-2019)

  4. CSCO reaches $60/share (1-18-2019)

  5. VEEV reaches $145/share (2-14-2019) (achieved $145.23 on 5-10-2019)

  6. CVS reaches $91.50 (2-27-2019)

  7. Bull market takes another leg up (4-7-2019)

  8. The Fed will lower rates 1-2 times (5-13-2019)

Clay's Rules

Rule #1: Don't lose money

Rule #2: See Rule #1

Rule #3: Portfolios go to zero, markets don't, Stay Invested

Rule #4: When a good stock you own drops 10% below your cost basis, add shares

Rule #5: Bull markets aren't sustained without the Transports

Rule #6: When Forward P/E is lower than TTM P/E, expect earnings to increase

Disclosure: I am personally invested long in some or all of these stocks or funds that appear in the Stay Invested portfolio and may purchase or sell shares within the next 72 hours. I am also invested in other stocks and funds that do not appear in the Stay Invested portfolio but may be mentioned or related to this article. It is not my intention to advise or encourage the purchase or sale of any security. I am invested long in these securities mentioned in this post:

CVS, CSCO, VEEV, STZ, AMZN, NVDA, BCRX, GS, BDSI, VEEV, VTI, GLD, HD, AWR, XLNX, MRVL, NBRV

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. This article is not intended to offer investing advice, guarantee 100% accurate predictions, or to be interpreted as providing a personal recommendation.

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This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice.
This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities.

© 2016 by Clay Baker all rights reserved