NOC Beat & Raised!
“When buying and selling are controlled by legislation,
the first things to be bought and sold are legislators.”
― P.J. O’Rourke
The Portfolio
Our blog portfolio continues to perform well and volatility remains low. Year-To-Date the portfolio is up +18.43%. Our benchmark, the S&P 500 is up a stunning +20.45% YTD and closed at 3,019.
Earnings Season Continues
Our portfolio companies continue to report earnings, with Northrup Grumman Corporation up today. So far every company in the portfolio has been a meet or beat in terms of earnings and revenue. Most have provided guidance indicating continued growth. It's very difficult to buy into all the negative analyst commentary when such a diverse set of companies continually reports great numbers.
Northrop Grumman delivered a fantastic quarter and created a new challenge for the portfolio. The stock is up $18.98 (+5.86%) on the news that they beat estimates and raised their guidance for the rest of the year. Our challenge is that the stock is now above my 1-year target estimate of $342/share. The decision we need to make is, 1) Sell the shares and capture our +42.95% profit, 2) Trim our position and stay with the company, or 3) Hold our shares because management has provided guidance that the rest of the year will be even better. I'm going to hold our shares and will raise our full year price target to $353.
Some investors will take profits, there's no getting around that, so we're likely to see shares take a dip over the next few days. For many investors, the next earnings call is just a really long time to wait, but for the Stay Invested portfolio we're only half way through the year.
While most people think of NOC for military aircraft, the company is much more diverse than that and has a life saving and security presence in everyone's daily life. Know what you own, and why you own it. Northrop Grumman is a diverse corporation made up of several divisions that provide a broad array of services and technology to both military and civilian customers. I encourage everyone to visit their web site to see all they do www.northropgrumman.com and be sure to check out the corporate leadership page. Northrop Grumman Leadership
Cyber
Logistic
Autonomous Systems
C4ISR: Tools & Intelligence for first reponders
Strike
Advanced Electronics
Commercial Aviation
Defense Systems
Directed Energy
Healthcare
IT & Enterprise Solutions
Manned Aircraft
Military Aviation
Missile Defense
Naval Systems
Navigation Systems
Space
NOC 7-24-2019
EXPECTED: Northrop Grumman Corporation is expected* to report earnings on 07/24/2019 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Jun 2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $4.69. Earnings range is range is $4.42 to $4.89.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $8.43B, Revenue range is $8.28B - $8.52B.
REPORTED: Northrup Grumman reported second quarter earnings per share of $5.06 today, a solid beat over the $4.69 analysts were predicting.
Total revenues came in at $8.456 billion, exceeding the $8.43 billion forecast.
NOC expects to earn $34 billion for all of 2019, while analysts are forecasting $33.90 billion.
Management raised full year earnings guidance from a range of $18.90-$19.30, up to $19.30-$19.55.
AMZN 7-25-2018
EXPECTED: Amazon.com, Inc. is estimated to report earnings on 07/25/2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $5.52. Earnings range is range is $4.34 to $6.77.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $62.46B, Revenue range is $60.97B - $63.76B.
MA 7-30-2019
EXPECTED: Mastercard Incorporated is expected* to report earnings on 07/30/2019 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Jun 2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1.83. Earnings range is range is $1.73 to $1.91.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $4.09B, Revenue range is $4.01B - $4.18B.
SNE 7-30-2019
EXPECTED: Sony Corp Ord is expected* to report earnings on 07/30/2019 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Jun 2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.78. Earnings range is range is $0.78 to $0.78.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $18.79B, Revenue range is $18.79B - $18.79B.
MPWR 7-31-2019
EXPECTED: Monolithic Power Systems is estimated to report earnings on 07/24/2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.92. Earnings range is range is $0.91 to $0.93.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $150.68M, Revenue range is $150.16M - $150.7.
RCL 8-1-2019
EXPECTED: Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is estimated to report earnings on 08/01/2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $2.47. Earnings range is range is $2.34 to $2.53.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $2.8B, Revenue range is $2.76B - $2.84B.
XYL 8-1-2019
EXPECTED: Xylem Inc. is expected* to report earnings on 08/01/2019 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Jun 2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.79. Earnings range is range is $0.76 to $0.80.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $1.35B, Revenue range is $1.32B - $1.40B.
MIXT 8-1-2019
EXPECTED: MiX Telematics Limited is estimated to report earnings on 08/01/2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.18. Earnings range is range is $0.18 to $0.18.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $35.46M, Revenue range is $34.36M - $36.25M.
AWR 8-5-2019
EXPECTED: American States Water Company is estimated to report earnings on 08/05/2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.51. Earnings range is range is $0.50 to $0.53.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $115.2M, Revenue range is $110.5M - $122.31M.
FOXF 8-7-2019
EXPECTED: Fox Factory is estimated to report earnings on 08/07/2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.66. Earnings range is range is $0.65 to $0.67.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $187.94M, Revenue range is $185.12M - $190.3M.
CCMP 8-7-2019
EXPECTED: Cabot Microelectronics is expected* to report earnings on 08/07/2019 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Jun 2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1.57. Earnings range is range is $1.50 to $1.65.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $267.13M, Revenue range is $263M - $270M.
NSP 8-7-2019
EXPECTED: Insperity, Inc. is estimated to report earnings on 08/07/2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.83. Earnings range is range is $0.83 to $0.84.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $1.04B, Revenue range is $1.02B - $1.05B.
CVS 8-7-2019
EXPECTED: CVS Health Corporation is expected* to report earnings on 08/07/2019 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Jun 2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1.69. Earnings range is range is $1.65 to $1.72.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $62.71B, Revenue range is $61.66B - $63.28B.
BDSI 8-8-2019
EXPECTED: BioDelivery Sciences is estimated to report earnings on 08/08/2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $-0.06. Earnings range is range is $-0.25 to $-0.01.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $24.59M, Revenue range is $23.07M - $27.3M.
NBRV 8-8-2019
EXPECTED: Nabriva Therapeutics is estimated to report earnings on 08/08/2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $-0.33. Earnings range is range is $-0.34 to $-0.33.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $790K, Revenue range is $500K - $1.25M.
BSTC 8-8-2019
EXPECTED: BioSpecifics Technologies Corp is estimated to report earnings on 08/08/2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.72. Earnings range is range is $0.72 to $0.72.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $8.98M, Revenue range is $8.98M - $8.98M.
NVDA 8-15-2019
EXPECTED: NVIDIA Corporation is estimated to report earnings on 08/15/2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1.14. Earnings range is range is $1.07 to $1.24.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $2.54B, Revenue range is $2.41B - $2.57B.
VEEV 8-22-2019
EXPECTED: Veeva Systems Inc. is estimated to report earnings on 08/22/2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.49. Earnings range is range is $0.48 to $0.51.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $259.37M, Revenue range is $254.17M - $262.6M.
HEI 8-26-2019
EXPECTED: Heico Corporation is estimated to report earnings on 08/26/2019.
The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.54. Earnings range is range is $0.50 to $0.56.
The consensus revenue forecast for the quarter is $510.16M, Revenue range is $503.4M - $521.53M.
"Markets don't go to zero, Portfolio's do.
Buy quality, be patient...and look twice for motorcyclists"
- Clay Baker
Stay Invested,
Clay
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Keep Me Honest
S&P 500 declines to 2,350 or more (1-3-2019)
Healthcare and Biotech sectors outperform (1-3-2019)
S&P reaches 3,000 by year end (1-11-2019)
CSCO reaches $60/share (1-18-2019)
VEEV reaches $145/share (2-14-2019) (achieved $145.23 on 5-10-2019)
CVS reaches $91.50 (2-27-2019)
Bull market takes another leg up (4-7-2019)
The Fed will lower rates 1-2 times (5-13-2019)
Clay's Rules
Rule #1: Don't lose money
Rule #3: Portfolios go to zero, markets don't, Stay Invested
Rule #4: When a good stock you own drops 10% below your cost basis, add shares
Rule #5: Bull markets aren't sustained without the Transports
Rule #6: When Forward P/E is lower than TTM P/E, expect earnings to increase
Disclosure: I am personally invested long in some or all of these stocks or funds that appear in the Stay Invested portfolio and may purchase or sell shares within the next 72 hours. I am also invested in other stocks and funds that do not appear in the Stay Invested portfolio but may be mentioned or related to this article. It is not my intention to advise or encourage the purchase or sale of any security. I am invested long in these securities mentioned in this post:
CVS, CSCO, VEEV, STZ, AMZN, NVDA, BCRX, GS, BDSI, VEEV, VTI, GLD, HD, AWR, XLNX, MRVL
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. This article is not intended to offer investing advice, guarantee 100% accurate predictions, or to be interpreted as providing a personal recommendation.
