Charting Myself?
Mother's Little Helper portfolio was DOWN today -$21.23 (+0.02%).
Overall GAIN YTD: +391.85 (+0.33%).
Our benchmark index, the S&P 500 is DOWN -0.14%
"Find out just what any people will quietly submit to
and you have the exact measure of the injustice and wrong which will be imposed on them."
- Frederick Douglass
I made my buys for the year on December 28, 2017, see the new portfolio here (Click Here).
Measuring Myself
Only do those things that you can measure. Seek constant improvement. Be the man my dog thinks I am. These are all great words of wisdom, but none of this really means anything until you actually apply measurement to yourself. How did I perform. Were my actions producing anything of value. Was my advice worth the time it took to write it down.
I don't know...
Let's Look Deeper
Today I went back through all the posts from 2017...wow was that an interesting history lesson. I had forgotten some of the incredible globally events to occurred and many of the predictions and recommendations I had made. What inspired today's post was a comment made by Kevin O'Leary on TV, and once again I found myself shouting at the box. I was angry and indignant about how this guy uses his TV soap box to spew horrible advice and never get called on his misses. I shouldn't single Kevin out, there are lots of TV commentators who only get applauded for their good calls and never get called out for the bad ones; no matter how much destruction they caused average investors. So that got me to thinking...how did I do? Overall the results were pretty good but consistancy is the name of the game, so we'll just have to keep at it and see how I do this year.
Here are the 25 calls, predictions, prognostications and crystal ball insights I spewed out in 2017.
Dec 2016 (WIN): DIY portfolio can outperform; 2017 = 45.56%, 2016 = 35.35% https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2016/12/26/Mothers-Little-Helper-Launches
Dec 30 2016 (WIN): “This portfolio is not intended to be the sole investments or the beginning investments for a new investor. Remember this project is about my mom. In the new year I'll talk more about a complete investment portfolio, what should be in it, what should be bought first and where investments like this portfolio come into play.” We’re running that portfolio now. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2016/12/30/Day-4-Good-Bye-2016
Jan 6, 2017 (WIN but Wrong): the DOW gets to 21,700 by 2018. I was low by 3,000 points, DOW closed above 21,700 on August 10th 2017 and finished the year at 24,719. I consider this a high quality problem. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/01/06/Day-10-DOW-21700
Jan 10, 2017 (WIN): Bill Gross is Wrong: Bill Gross thinks that 2.60% on the 10 Year Treasury is significant. He thinks it's more important than any other number out there. I disagree. The number is over 3%, specifically I'm calling it 3.03%. We’re well past 2.60% and knocking on the door to 3% and the market is powering higher. This call is looking more possible every day. I’m still long a short on treasuries in the TBT. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/01/10/Day-14-Bill-Gross-is-wrong
Jan 12, 2017 (WIN): I went all in after a Trump Tweet threw the markets into chaos, Portfolio finishes the year up +45.56%. “The sooner we all stop buying and selling on a Tweet the sooner he has to holster his weapon because it's useless. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/01/12/Day-16-The-New-New-Normal
January 13, 2017 (BIG WIN): Kevin O’Leary is wrong. I called out Kevin O’Leary for making a reckless and self-serving claim that smaller regional banks are dangerous. "I take issue with the regional banks, I think those are dangerous," O'Leary said on CNBC's Halftime Report Friday afternoon. "What is going to happen somewhere along the line in Q1 we are going to see a 10% correction in the regional banks," . I advocated buying regional banks which can be done through the KRE ETF. If you owned 1000 shares of the KRE and sold on the fear that O’Leary was selling, you lost $7,830 plus transaction fees. On January 13 the KRE closed at $54.81. Today it closed at $62.64 and the volatility was like watching paint dry. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/01/13/Day-17-Kevin-OLeary-is-Wrong
January 18, 2017 (WIN): ASML earnings report predicts future of semi-conductor stocks. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/01/18/Day-20-ASML-rocks-the-future-is-bright
January 25, 2017 (WIN): I called for higher interest rates. So, the $50 Trillion dollar question is, what's it going to take to get that money invested again? Bring on the interest rate hikes! https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/01/25/Day-27-The-50-Trillion-Question
January 26, 2017 (WIN): I called the market still cheap. S&P 500 closed at 2,296.68 with a 17 multiple, today it’s at 2,669.91 at only a 16 multiple. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/01/26/Day-28-Markets-are-still-cheap
February 8, 2017 (LOSS): Feds $4.5 Trillion is Permanent. Looks like I got this one wrong, for now. The balance sheet has been reduced to $4.375 Trillion in just one year. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/02/08/Day-36-Feds-45-Trillion-is-Permanent
February 15, 2017 (WIN): I recommended buying Cisco Systems as a bond market equivalent and growth stock. On this day Cisco closed at $31.47 and paid .26 cents a share, today the stock closed at $44.71 and pays .33 cents a share. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/02/15/Day-43-Buy-Bond-Market-Equivalents
March 6, 2017 (WIN): The Market is going higher, after an initial pull back on inflation fears. In late May after a lot of market rotations the DOW began moving well above the March 6 close of 20,954.34 https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/03/06/Day-70-The-market-is-going-higher
March 15, 2017 (WIN): I suggested that the market would be falling and present a buying opportunity. The DOW closed that day at 20,950.10 and over the next month fell to 20,453.25. Nearly 500 points of buying opportunity. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/03/15/Day-79
March 28, 2017 (WIN): I called the market at an inflection point with lots of growth ahead. The DOW closed at 20,701 that day, on April 24, 2017 the DOW closed above 20,701 at 20,763.89 and has been climbing higher ever since. Only 13 months ago we were about 4,000 points lower on the DOW. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/03/28/Day-92-Its-A-Setup
April 25, 2017 (Hard to measure WIN & LOSS): I stated that Canadian Lumber tariffs would be a big factor in the price of homes. Turns out low inventory of homes for sale has driven prices up, not tariffs. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/04/25/Day-120-Canadian-Tariff-Works
May 3, 2017 (LOSS): This was amiss, I thought Citrix Systems would get bought out but maybe I was early. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/05/03/Day-128-Citrix-Systems-Buy-Out
May 10, 2017 (WIN): stated that the S&P 500 would reach 2500 by year end, the S&P 500 closed the year at 2,673.61. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/05/10/Day-135-SP-Breakout
June 15, 2017 (WIN): Don’t sell tech. Tech stocks experienced a big sell off, but I advised against following that trade on companies like Apple ($142.63), Alphabet ($942.31), Netflix ($151.76), Amazon ($964.17) and Facebook ($149.80). Closing prices on these companies today: Apple $162.32 +13.8%, Alphabet $1,030.05 +9%, Netflix $311.76 + 105.4%, Amazon $1,572.62 +63%, and Facebook $173.59 +15.8%. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/06/15/Day-Dont-Sell-Tech
June 26, 2017 (WIN): Stay Long VEEVA systems. The stock rose significantly from our $41.68 buy price to $62.33 on this date. The stock declined the rest of the year, but for a long investor who kept it the rewards have been excellent, Veeva Systems closed today at $70.92, a 70% gain in just 16 months.
June 28, 2017 (LOSS): I said the S&P 500 could reach 2900 by year end. I got ahead of myself on this one, the S&P 500 closed the year at 2,673.61. Frankly it was a stupid call, my bad.https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/06/28/Day-184-SP-Going-to-2900
July 25, 2017 (WIN): Dynavax a Dog? I stated that Dynavax shares should go up on upcoming data and made that prediction based on the activity in the options market. Shares closed this day at $9.90 and by August 8th they closed at $18.65. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/07/25/Day-210-Dynavax-a-Dog
August 4, 2017 (WIN and still unfolding): I advocated buying the Proshares TBT a short position against long term bonds, The TBT closed that day at $35.68. With interest rates higher the TBT closed today at $38.06. Not a huge move but a win and it should keep moving higher with increasing rates. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/08/04/Day-220-Bond-Bubble
August 31, 2017 (WIN & LOSS): This proves you shouldn't time the market. I picked four stocks for the second half of 2017. Progenics Pharmaceuticals YE target price $10. United Rentals YE Target price $135, Synaptics YE target price $55, and Nvidia YE target price $200. At year end Progenics had dropped from $6.73 to $5.95, a big miss. The stock has had a 52 week high of $8.63 and closed today at $6.84. United Rentals closed on this day at $118.06 and rose to $171.91 by year end. Synaptics closed this day at $41.57 and closed down at $39.94. Nvidia was one of my highest conviction stocks last year. On this day it closed at $162.22, in November it rose well above $200 and closed the year just below by target at $193.38. Today Nvidia closed at $226.33. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/08/31/Day-248-Best-Stocks-for-2nd-Half
September 13, 2017 (WIN & LOSS): Recommended buying Applied Materials in four tranches in order to average down the price. On this day the stock closed at $45.96, you never got another chance to buy below that price, my bad. You could have made a nice profit but you didn't get a full position following my advice, that's a high quality problem. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/09/13/Day-261-Applied-Materials
December 13, 2017 (WIN): I said, “Ready For Lift Off”, an optimistic statement with a long story about rates and the global economy. The DOPW closed this day at 24,585 and proceeded to blast through 26,000 by the end of January. The NSDAQ closed this day at 6,875 and rocketed above 7,000 in late January and is still above 7,100. The S&P was at 2,662 and while it flirted with 2,800 in March its back down to these same levels today at about 2,669. https://www.claybaker.com/single-post/2017/12/13/Day-347-Ready-For-Lift-Off
Stay Invested,
Clay Baker
Disclosure: I am personally invested long in some or all of these funds that appear in the Mother's Little Helper portfolio or manage these investments for my Mother's portfolio and may purchase or sell shares within the next 72 hours. I am also invested in other stocks and funds that do not appear in the MLH portfolio but may be mentioned or related to this article. It is not my intention to advise or encourage the purchase or sale of any security. Since I may on occasion discuss Bitcoin and other cryto currencies I disclose here that I personally own investments in the cryto-currencies listed here: DBC, VTI, VWO, VEA, VIG, XLE, MUB, TBT, GLD, Bitcoin, LiteCoin
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. This article is not intended to offer investing advice, guarantee 100% accurate predictions, or to be interpreted as providing a personal recommendation.
