Charting Myself?

Mother's Little Helper portfolio was DOWN today -$21.23 (+0.02%).

Overall GAIN YTD: +391.85 (+0.33%).

Our benchmark index, the S&P 500 is DOWN -0.14%

"Find out just what any people will quietly submit to

and you have the exact measure of the injustice and wrong which will be imposed on them."

- Frederick Douglass

I made my buys for the year on December 28, 2017, see the new portfolio here (Click Here).

Measuring Myself

Only do those things that you can measure. Seek constant improvement. Be the man my dog thinks I am. These are all great words of wisdom, but none of this really means anything until you actually apply measurement to yourself. How did I perform. Were my actions producing anything of value. Was my advice worth the time it took to write it down.

I don't know...

Let's Look Deeper

Today I went back through all the posts from was that an interesting history lesson. I had forgotten some of the incredible globally events to occurred and many of the predictions and recommendations I had made. What inspired today's post was a comment made by Kevin O'Leary on TV, and once again I found myself shouting at the box. I was angry and indignant about how this guy uses his TV soap box to spew horrible advice and never get called on his misses. I shouldn't single Kevin out, there are lots of TV commentators who only get applauded for their good calls and never get called out for the bad ones; no matter how much destruction they caused average investors. So that got me to did I do? Overall the results were pretty good but consistancy is the name of the game, so we'll just have to keep at it and see how I do this year.

Here are the 25 calls, predictions, prognostications and crystal ball insights I spewed out in 2017.

  1. Dec 2016 (WIN): DIY portfolio can outperform; 2017 = 45.56%, 2016 = 35.35%

  2. Dec 30 2016 (WIN): “This portfolio is not intended to be the sole investments or the beginning investments for a new investor. Remember this project is about my mom. In the new year I'll talk more about a complete investment portfolio, what should be in it, what should be bought first and where investments like this portfolio come into play.” We’re running that portfolio now.

  3. Jan 6, 2017 (WIN but Wrong): the DOW gets to 21,700 by 2018. I was low by 3,000 points, DOW closed above 21,700 on August 10th 2017 and finished the year at 24,719. I consider this a high quality problem.

  4. Jan 10, 2017 (WIN): Bill Gross is Wrong: Bill Gross thinks that 2.60% on the 10 Year Treasury is significant. He thinks it's more important than any other number out there. I disagree. The number is over 3%, specifically I'm calling it 3.03%. We’re well past 2.60% and knocking on the door to 3% and the market is powering higher. This call is looking more possible every day. I’m still long a short on treasuries in the TBT.

  5. Jan 12, 2017 (WIN): I went all in after a Trump Tweet threw the markets into chaos, Portfolio finishes the year up +45.56%. “The sooner we all stop buying and selling on a Tweet the sooner he has to holster his weapon because it's useless.

  6. January 13, 2017 (BIG WIN): Kevin O’Leary is wrong. I called out Kevin O’Leary for making a reckless and self-serving claim that smaller regional banks are dangerous. "I take issue with the regional banks, I think those are dangerous," O'Leary said on CNBC's Halftime Report Friday afternoon. "What is going to happen somewhere along the line in Q1 we are going to see a 10% correction in the regional banks," . I advocated buying regional banks which can be done through the KRE ETF. If you owned 1000 shares of the KRE and sold on the fear that O’Leary was selling, you lost $7,830 plus transaction fees. On January 13 the KRE closed at $54.81. Today it closed at $62.64 and the volatility was like watching paint dry.

  7. January 18, 2017 (WIN): ASML earnings report predicts future of semi-conductor stocks.

  8. January 25, 2017 (WIN): I called for higher interest rates. So, the $50 Trillion dollar question is, what's it going to take to get that money invested again? Bring on the interest rate hikes!

  9. January 26, 2017 (WIN): I called the market still cheap. S&P 500 closed at 2,296.68 with a 17 multiple, today it’s at 2,669.91 at only a 16 multiple.

  10. February 8, 2017 (LOSS): Feds $4.5 Trillion is Permanent. Looks like I got this one wrong, for now. The balance sheet has been reduced to $4.375 Trillion in just one year.

  11. February 15, 2017 (WIN): I recommended buying Cisco Systems as a bond market equivalent and growth stock. On this day Cisco closed at $31.47 and paid .26 cents a share, today the stock closed at $44.71 and pays .33 cents a share.

  12. March 6, 2017 (WIN): The Market is going higher, after an initial pull back on inflation fears. In late May after a lot of market rotations the DOW began moving well above the March 6 close of 20,954.34

  13. March 15, 2017 (WIN): I suggested that the market would be falling and present a buying opportunity. The DOW closed that day at 20,950.10 and over the next month fell to 20,453.25. Nearly 500 points of buying opportunity.

  14. March 28, 2017 (WIN): I called the market at an inflection point with lots of growth ahead. The DOW closed at 20,701 that day, on April 24, 2017 the DOW closed above 20,701 at 20,763.89 and has been climbing higher ever since. Only 13 months ago we were about 4,000 points lower on the DOW.

  15. April 25, 2017 (Hard to measure WIN & LOSS): I stated that Canadian Lumber tariffs would be a big factor in the price of homes. Turns out low inventory of homes for sale has driven prices up, not tariffs.

  16. May 3, 2017 (LOSS): This was amiss, I thought Citrix Systems would get bought out but maybe I was early.

  17. May 10, 2017 (WIN): stated that the S&P 500 would reach 2500 by year end, the S&P 500 closed the year at 2,673.61.

  18. June 15, 2017 (WIN): Don’t sell tech. Tech stocks experienced a big sell off, but I advised against following that trade on companies like Apple ($142.63), Alphabet ($942.31), Netflix ($151.76), Amazon ($964.17) and Facebook ($149.80). Closing prices on these companies today: Apple $162.32 +13.8%, Alphabet $1,030.05 +9%, Netflix $311.76 + 105.4%, Amazon $1,572.62 +63%, and Facebook $173.59 +15.8%.

  19. June 26, 2017 (WIN): Stay Long VEEVA systems. The stock rose significantly from our $41.68 buy price to $62.33 on this date. The stock declined the rest of the year, but for a long investor who kept it the rewards have been excellent, Veeva Systems closed today at $70.92, a 70% gain in just 16 months.

  20. June 28, 2017 (LOSS): I said the S&P 500 could reach 2900 by year end. I got ahead of myself on this one, the S&P 500 closed the year at 2,673.61. Frankly it was a stupid call, my bad.

  21. July 25, 2017 (WIN): Dynavax a Dog? I stated that Dynavax shares should go up on upcoming data and made that prediction based on the activity in the options market. Shares closed this day at $9.90 and by