Day 9: First date jitters


The market is beginning to feel a little like a first date between young lovers, "Does he like me?" "Will she call?" Markets do not like uncertainty any more than teenage lovers do, but one thing remains constant, both are willing to pay up for any hint of a brighter future. These aren't my rules, I just choose to play by them.

Yesterdays +60 point gain was met with a -43 point drop today. At its low today the DOW was down 113 points. "OMG why doesn't he call me!" Uncertainty from the President elect, poor holiday sales from Macy's and Kohl's, U.S Treasuries witnessed another rally, and investors stewed over tomorrows December non-farm payroll report. Oh an don't forget that Gold and the US Dollar played their game as the dollar fell, gold rallied.

Amidst all the uncertainty one important disconnect seems to be finding its way back to normal, crude oil prices went higher and stocks didn't follow. For most of my life time oil and stocks have generally moved in opposite directions. Cheap oil is theoretically good for business, as long as your not selling oil. Cheaper oil means better bottom lines and stocks should go up. But post Great Recession stocks have been following oil up. IMHO I think its been jitters around the amount of debt banks have lent to oil companies and the possibility that low oil prices were going to cause another recession if those oil companies couldn't pay back those loans. Some of the most at risk oil companies from that period are now looking like really good investments, aka: Chesapeake Oil and the banks are looking well endowed to cover any losses. The whipsaw reaction of stocks to oil prices looks to be slowing and turning to more normalized response as the price of a barrel of oil approaches $60. Next time gas prices go up at your local pump, say thank you....maybe quietly inside your head.

The portfolio closed the day DOWN with a loss of -0.58% for -$2,895.90, producing an overall portfolio loss of

-$2,116.45 (-0.57%). Currently we have 29 companies in the green and 45 still in the red. No new investments have been made. To date, Greene County Bancorp (GCBC) is our biggest gainer, up +10.13%.

Top 5 investments to date by performance:

  1. Greene County Bancorp (GCBC) +10.13%

  2. Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) +5.29%

  3. Mylan NV (MYL) +4.34%

  4. Logitech (LOGI) +4.31%

  5. Kingstone Companies (KINS) +3.84%

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This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice.
This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities.

© 2016 by Clay Baker all rights reserved