First Buys for 2021

Free advice may not be worth what you paid for it

- Clay Baker



​​The Portfolio Performance

The portfolio is UP +4.00%

Our benchmark, the S&P 500 closed DOWN -1.70%


First Buys I made my first buys of the year today. Because I was taking 50% positions I did not use limit orders, I bought at the current market prices. I'm holding a lot of cash that will be deployed carefully over the next several months. If a major decline occurs I may deploy it faster. Mister market appears ready to cool off a bit and give us some bargains so I plan to be ready with plenty of cash to take advantage of those bargains. I had intended to hold 50% cash, but it looks like I'm holding a lot more than that after taking 50% positions in all our holdings.


At the moment I'm not planning to add any more new positions unless something comes along that I can't resist and it fits within the profile of this portfolio; meaning that I can add a name and still has a great risk-adjusted return.


"Tomorrow is the first blank page of a 365-page book. Write a good one"

-Brad Paisley


Keep Me Honest for 2021

My first three predictions are listed at the bottom of this post. I'm dating every prediction so we can all circle back at the end of the year to see when events actually transpire.


The New Portfolio for 2021

Below is the complete list of holdings that I've started 2021 with, and I've updated it with the prices I paid this morning.





"Markets don't go to zero, Portfolio's do.

Buy quality, be patient...and look twice for motorcycles."

- Clay Baker

Stay Invested,

Clay Baker

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Keep Me Honest 2021

  1. The S&P 500 will achieve year-end earnings of $170-$175 (1-1-2021).

  2. We are likely to have a significant pull-back during the 1st quarter, about 5%-10% (1-1-2021).

  3. Stocking picking will outperform algorithmic trading again as it did in 2020 (1-1-2021).

Clay's Rules

Rule #1: Don't lose money

Rule #2: See Rule #1

Rule #3: Portfolios go to zero, markets don't, Stay Invested

Rule #4: When good stocks you own drop 10% below your cost basis, add shares

Rule #5: Bull markets aren't sustained without the Transports

Rule #6: When Forward P/E is lower than TTM P/E, expect earnings to increase

Rule #7: When an investment bank sells below book value, buy it

Rule #8: Tips are for waiters. Do your own homework.

Rule #9: Don't sell a stock because you're bored with it. Do your own homework.

RULE #10: Being early and being late is the same as being wrong...move on.

Disclosure: I am personally invested long in some or all of these stocks or funds that appear in the Stay Invested portfolio and may purchase or sell shares within the next 72 hours. I am also invested in other stocks and funds that do not appear in the Stay Invested portfolio but may be mentioned or related to this article. It is not my intention to advise or encourage the purchase or sale of any security. I am invested long in these securities mentioned in this post:

AMD, AMRN, AMZN, AAPL, ARKK, ARKG, CNRG, ENPH, FB, GNRC, GBTC, GLD, HRTX, HD, IPOD, MSFT, NVDA, PSTH, TWLO, VBIV

I am invested short in these securities mentioned in this post:

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. This article is not intended to offer investing advice, guarantee 100% accurate predictions, or to be interpreted as providing a personal recommendation.

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This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice.
This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities.

© 2016 by Clay Baker all rights reserved