Day 186: Awesome Half


The Mother's Little Helper portfolio was DOWN today -$998.18 (-0.14%).

Overall GAIN YTD: +$150,080.18 (+25.70%).

According to CNN Money our benchmark index, the S&P 500 is up +8.24% Year To Date (http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/).

Mother's Little Helper has had a couple of down days, taking a hit with the overall profit taking going on in the broader market. Over the last few days we've shaved off 2.39% from our high of +28.07%.

I receive many emails with comments about these posts and requests for my thoughts on specific stocks or approaches to investing. While I don't provide investing advice, I'm happy to share my own thoughts if that helps you find new perspectives. Please post your questions and comments at the bottom of the blog post. Often I receive the same question from multiple people, so let's talk in the blog so that all can benefit.

Today is the last trading day of the first half of the year and end of the second quarter. At this mid-point in our journey I'd like to take a minute to thank my Mom, Ally Lou Baker. In fact I wish every reader today would post a thank you on this blog because it's her story that inspired this blog, the portfolio and the Stay Invested mission. My mom has been a big cheerleader for my blogging and everything else I do.

A slew of 'Second Half' market predictions should be out any minute now, but the batteries in my crystal ball need changing, so I'll just have to rely on my old standby, 'Stay Invested', the market will do whatever it's going to do. While MLH has taken over a 2% hit in the last couple days we are still ahead +25.70%, over 3X the S&P 500. If we cashed out today we would have $149,853 (proceeds minus commissions @ $4.95 each) in cash for six months patience. While seeing our portfolio decline 2.39% in a couple of days isn't fun, there isn't anything about the current selling in the market that invalidates our thesis, this portfolio or the strength of the current market. The selling is simply some overdue profit taking, particularly on technology and healthcare stocks that have had a big run in the first half of the year and that selling should induce new buyers to begin acquiring shares at the now reduced prices. I say overdue selling because I think this was a healthy pull back. The market shouldn't just keep going up daily, especially on no news or catalyst that would give investors reason to value shares higher.

Robert Shiller, the Nobel Prize winning-economist and creator of The Schiller Index (http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/) said in a recent interview with TheStreet's Anders Keitz that U.S. equities markets are "quite high" but may go even higher in coming months. There's another thing that could have an unpredictable effect on the market Shiller explains: The narrative around Donald Trump. "Short-run forecasting of the market is very hard," said Shiller. "I think it's a time for caution, but it could go up substantially." For every Nobel Prize winning economist who is bullish on the market, there is one that's not. I wish I had a dime for every economist with an opinion.

Going into the second half of the year our strategy will be...stay invested.

Stay Invested,

Clay Baker

Disclosure: I am personally invested long in these stocks that appear in the MLH portfolio and may purchase or sell share withing the next 72 hours. I am also invested in other stocks that do not appear in the MLH portfolio: BA, BRK.B, CELG, CSCO, CTXS, CVX, DOW, DVAX, FB, IBM, NTES, NVDA, OMER, PFE, PG, RDHL, SCHW, THO, TWX, VEEV, VZ, XLNX, XOM

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

This article is not intended to offer investing advice, guarantee 100% accurate predictions, or to be interpreted as providing a personal recommendation.

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This material is provided for informational purposes only, as of the date hereof, and is subject to change without notice.
This material may not be suitable for all investors and is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell any securities.

© 2016 by Clay Baker all rights reserved