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© 2016 by Clay Baker all rights reserved

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Day 116: Waiting on the French

April 21, 2017

 The Mother's Little Helper portfolio was down (-0.39%) today for a loss of -$2,705.80.  Overall gain to date: +$99,107.81 (+16.97%). According to CNN Money the S&P 500 is up +4.91% Year To Date (http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/).  None of our portfolio companies reported earnings today.

 

I love France, I've thoroughly enjoyed every trip I've made there.  My mom and dad even sold their house and moved to France for a while.  Whether I'm wondering where my meal is in a French restaurant, trying to get to the top of the Eiffel tower or fumbling with the French cuffs on my dress shirt; one thing remains constant, I'm always waiting on something French.  Today was no different.  Markets opened mixed and remained fairly flat all day wavering between slightly positive and slightly negative; it was definitely a 'wait and see' day as the French election overshadowed everything else.  The Dow closed down -30.95 today, NASDAQ -6.26 and the S&P 500 -7.15.

 

While the Trump administration talked more about rapid progress on healthcare and tax reform, investors ignored the latest round of hype and remained fixated on the French election.  What a fun parlor game this is (insert sarcasm here).  Let's remember some recent history with respect to 'The Polls'.  The polls got it wrong on Brexit, interest rates, bonds, the US election and the implied repercussions of all those events.  So I'll ignore the polls, go out on a limb and predict Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron will emerge from the first round and Marine Le Pen will ultimately win the election and become the next President of France.  My guess is it will be easier to impeach Marine Le Pen than to prevent her from winning the election.  The markets will over-react, the Dow in particular will pull back, particularly multi-national companies with heavy exposure to the Euro.  This will be short lived when investors realize that nothing moves any faster in French politics than it does in U.S politics.  Everything Le Pen has run on is harder to do than she or anyone else thinks and ultimately the French will not have a Frexit.  

 

Even if I'm wrong on all counts it won't matter.  The markets will digest the new order, whatever it is, companies will sort out the changes to their operations and we'll go on to the next earnings season as though none of this ever happened.

 

 

 

Stay Invested,

Clay Baker

 

 

 

 

Disclosure: I am personally invested long in these stocks that appear in the MLH portfolio and may purchase or sell share withing the next 72 hours.  I am also invested in other stocks that do not appear in the MLH portfolio: BA, BRK.B, CELG, CSCO, CTXS, CVX, DOW, DVAX, FB, IBM, NTES, NVDA, OMER, PFE, PG, RDHL, SCHW, THO, TWX, VEEV, VZ, XLNX, XOM

 

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

 

This article is not intended to offer investing advice, guarantee 100% accurate predictions, or to be interpreted as providing a personal recommendation.

 

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